Conflicting statements on how the model actually operates

In interviews last week, representatives of IHME — the institute behind the model — offered conflicting accounts on how exactly the projections work, and why the model predicts almost no deaths this summer. Every model relies on two things: data and assumptions. The IHME model in particular draws on the trajectory of the pandemic in other countries — like Italy and China — and assumes the US will follow a similar trend. Essentially, it uses those past experiences to predict the future, refining its projections as additional data comes in from the US and abroad.

The model’s homepage, IHME relies on another assumption, too: “full social distancing through May 2020.”But earlier language on the institute’s website — which has since been deleted — said the analysis “assumes continued social distancing through the end of the modeled period (August 4, 2020).”That’s an important difference: If few people are allowed to go outside during the summer, that helps explain why few deaths would occur. A professor at the institute, Ali Mokdad, confirmed to CNN on Wednesday that the earlier language was accurate. “We are assuming measures will stay in place until the end of the pandemic (until August),” he said in an email.


Here’s another reason as far as I’m concerned why we should all shun furs.

Two mink farms in the Netherlands have been put into quarantine after animals were found to be infected with the new coronavirus, the agriculture ministry said on Sunday, urging people to report any other likely cases in the animals.

The mink, which were tested after showing signs of having trouble breathing, were believed to have been infected by employees who had the virus, the ministry said in a statement.

The possibility that they could further spread the virus to humans or other animals on the farms was “minimal”, the ministry said, citing advice from national health authorities.

However movement of the ferret-like mammals and their manure was banned and the ministry said it was studying the outbreak carefully, including testing the air and soil. People were advised not to travel within 400 metres of the farms.

“When will it end?” This is the million-dollar question we’ve all been asking ourselves, ever since the coronavirus became a worldwide pandemic. And what a tough question it is to answer. Experts are doing their best to predict the end of the pandemic, but with so many variables, on such a global scale, this is no easy task. The latest reports do contain conflicting predictions, so which ones should we believe?

Click through the following gallery and find out the latest predictions for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to experts.

Mick meme

So 60 per cent of the world’s population are living under some form of lockdown or restrictions on movement.

For many, it’s a chance to learn to skills, learn new ways of doing more with less, finding new ways to thrive rather than simply survive.

But the effects of Covid-19 restrictions on children, on household finances, or simply living in a confined space with so many for so long are reasons why counselling support programs are receiving more calls across Europe.

The lockdown has been likened to living in a pressure cooker. Family tensions are being exacerbated, domestic violence has increased – London police say they’re dealing with an increase of 30 per cent during the lockdown there – and callers also highlight mental health problems.

Indeed, not being able to grieve property when loved ones die as a result of coronavirus are also amplifying stresses in this pressure cooker environment. Then children are at home, parents are trying to work, there are pets too – and everyone is trying to live in the same confined quarters for weeks on end with no end in sight.


There’s no shortage of covidiots in California and Florida. In fact it seems as if they have flocked to beaches during a summer-like heatwave despite authorities urging them to avoid trips there and continue practising social distancing measures.

California Governor Gavin Newsom acknowledged many Californians would be tempted to gather outside as the state experienced hot weather.

“CA can only keep flattening the curve if we stay home and practise physical distancing,” he tweeted. “You have the power to literally save lives.”

Police in Pacific Grove closed the Lovers Point Park and Beach because it became too crowded and people were not observing the restrictions.

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